The Epistemology of Food

Posted in Food/Beverage on April 28, 2011 by themaroon

 

One thing I spend way too much time on is food. If you don’t believe me, see my new cooking blog. I’m running an experiment in which I plan to cook 100 meals from cookbooks published by excellent chefs in one year and blog each one of them. I hope to also write about my personal history with food and cooking, as well as what I learn along the way. I’ve actually cooked a lot more dishes than I have posted, I just haven’t had time to write them all yet, but I’m on track.

Anyway, in addition to food I’ve been concerned with diet for quite some time. Unfortunately the more you read about what you’re supposed to eat the more frustrated you get. You come to realize quickly that there are some deep epistemological issues with nutrition. People get their information from a combination of science (good and bad, but mostly bad) and lobbying money, and science funded by lobbying money.

So when I see stuff like this extremely popular article I read recently, Eating Healthy for $3 A Day, in which the author strives to “eat healthy” by using the same USDA guidelines that have led us straight into an obesity epidemic I cringe. He’s using caloric ratios determined by our government and doesn’t seem even remotely cognizant where they come from or what effect they’ve had on the populace over the last 30 years. I hope for his sake this is just a brief experiment.

If you want to read a great article about just one small piece of the dietary puzzle, here’s one from the New York Times in 2002 with the best name ever: What if It’s All Been a Big Fat Lie? It’s about the interplay between science (both good and bad), Dr. Atkins, and government health recommendations.

The short story, and you should know this, is that in the 1970’s a link was theorized between saturated fat and cholesterol. Cholesterol was believed at the time to cause heart disease, so by the transitive property of bad science it was decided that saturated fat causes heart disease. (We now know the cholesterol-heart disease link itself is not that simple; there are two types of cholesterol and one appears to actually prevent heart disease, but at the time it was considered a slam dunk. Unfortunately it turned out to be a slam dunk in the much the way WMDs in Iraq did.)

As a result the government and medical institutions like the AMA gathered together and decided to recommend replacing calories from fat with calories from carbohydrates. Unfortunately it was bad science. The last decade since that article was written has essentially proven that if medicine had the same standards as, say, economics, that link would never have been considered valid in the first place and certainly wouldn’t have become the basis for government recommendations and regulations. Meta-studies have shown no statistically significant impact of saturated fat from meats on heart health. Tons of individual studies have been published with mixed results.

Also there’s a distinct correlation between the switch from fat to carb calories in the western diet and the rise of obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Hilariously in our attempts to become healthier we did things like cutting out butter, which contains a mix of saturated and unsaturated fats that may in fact be healthy, for margarine which contained trans-fats which, it turns out, are one of the few things we know for sure are really bad for you. We ditched meat but replaced it with preservatives and sugar, largely from high fructose corn syrup.

Interestingly when I talk to people most still believe firmly that saturated fat is unhealthy. My generation grew up hearing that. Two plus two is four, and red meat will give you a heart attack if you eat too much of it. These are things we just accept because we’ve been told that by people who should know. In reality it turns out that, while saturated fat in some quantity may be bad for you, we just don’t know. It may also be good for you. The results are wildly inconclusive. The one thing we do know for sure is that cutting out carbs leads to weight loss, which is a really strong indicator that we’re eating too many of them.

But really there’s a pretty good chance we’ll never know much of anything for sure because diets are zero sum. People have to eat something. If people eat less fat and more carbs and then they start getting sick (which is undoubtedly what has happened in the last 30 years) why is that? Is it because of the reduction in fat, or the increase in carbs, or because some nature-intended balance got thrown off? Is it because the fat came from meat which is also high in protein, iron, zinc, and various vitamins and now they’re not getting enough of those? Is it because most of the carbs comes from prepared foods loaded with preservatives and high fructose corn syrup? Even if they just cut out fat and didn’t add carbohydrates, and assume they can get the rest of what’s missing from multi-vitamins (which, by the way, are statistically proven to have zero impact on health) now we don’t know if they’re getting sick because they’re just not eating enough.

This is the main failing of nutritionism. Science has given us this idea that it’s not about what foods you eat but what nutrients. If we could just get the right combinations of nutrients, we’ve come to believe, we’ll be fine and would be even if we got them from a pill. Of course, scientists also discover a new nutrient multiple times a year. When I was a kid nobody knew what lycopene was. Now every bottle of anything containing tomatoes is touting its benefits.

So if you want to think about diet, you have to do it holistically. You have to think in terms of what foods the human animal is designed to eat. There are a few ways to do this.

First, you can look at remote tribes of people who haven’t been told about things like carbohydrates and saturated fat. What do they eat, and, when you control for the many causes of death they suffer from that we don’t, are they healthier? As bad as carbohydrates may be for you, a guy who eats bean burritos and ice cream all day is still going to live longer than a guy who gets his water from a river.

It turns out they eat lots of two things: green vegetables and lean red meat. Interestingly, they eat them in vastly different quantities. Some tribes are almost all gatherers, some eat almost no vegetation, and most are somewhere in between. They don’t eat preservatives. They’ve never heard of sodium benzoate. They don’t know what bread is. Their diets actually look a bit like Dr. Atkins’ recommendations, though without all of the silly phases. When you’ve never even heard of rice or ice cream it turns you don’t need very many rules.

The human body is remarkably flexible when it comes to diet which is, undoubtedly, one of our most significant adaptations. In fact this is a second way we can figure out what we should be eating, by comparing ourselves to similar animals. Our teeth and digestive systems are a perfect hodgepodge of carnivore and herbivore. Both are clearly able to process large amounts of both meat and vegetables, which is not common in the animal world. The size and nutrient requirements of our brain indicate we’re meant to eat at least a decent amount of meat.

I think the best you can do, really, is to not overthink it. The human body is remarkably resilient; small quantities of anything are unlikely to have long-term negative effects. Stay away from processed foods and you’ve already taken a big step. Try to reduce carbohydrate intake, but don’t worry too much about eliminating it. If you’re out at a nice restaurant then sure, have a little bread and maybe a desert, but don’t keep it in your house regularly.

Just keep your calories low and stick to food that is, well, food. Avoid eating things humans were clearly not designed for, like refined carbs and preservatives, and just accept the fact that beyond that you’ll never really know what you should or shouldn’t be eating so save your brainpower for the stuff that can make a difference.

Why The Amazon App Store Is Revolutionary

Posted in Mobile on March 31, 2011 by themaroon

When I heard that Amazon was building an app store for Android I was skeptical. I don’t know why, I’m about as big an Amazon fanboy as has ever existed. I’ve been buying everything I can from them (which today includes even basic toiletries and food) since probably 1999. I signed up for Prime shortly after it was introduced and have had it ever since. I love my Kindle so much that I’ve thought about arranging a wedding with it in Connecticut, the only state where marriage between a man and a gadget is legal.

Still, something about the idea of a secondary app store that you had to install through the primary app store (or, as it turns out, an even more confusing channel) just sounded a little too goofy to be true. You also have to allow side-loading of apps, which while not a problem for people like me isn’t something 95% of users have done. AT&T even blocks it entirely on their devices.

And, let’s be honest, Amazon doesn’t have a track record of making good-looking, highly functional products. Their website is still an eyesore to this day, even though it’s come a long way in the last few years. It’s got a lot of functional problems too. It often recommends to me things virtually identical to something I just bought. It has a link on the side to filter a search to only items that are eligible for Prime, but when you click it still many items that are ineligible remain. You shop at Amazon because it’s cheaper and easier than going to the store, more reliable than finding things from various merchants through Google Shopping, and has excellent customer service. You don’t shop there because it’s good looking, but good looking sells mobile apps.

Last week it launched and I have to say I was dead wrong. Amazon knocked this one out of the park. It had never occurred to me just how much better than Google’s app market Amazon’s could be. I think Amazon’s is even better than Apple’s. It’s the best looking and most usable Amazon product I’ve ever seen by far.

amazon-app-store01

I’ve written before on my company’s blog about why the Android Market sucks. I don’t really believe that it’s going to improve very much. I think Google has a culture of organizational arrogance and while they admit they could be doing a better job on the app market, they don’t realize how much better and they have no idea why. They think their store is an 8 out of 10 and needs to be a 10, when really it’s a 2. I could go on about this for hours, but there’s no sense flogging a dead horse.

The Amazon market is a clear winner for Android’s many constituents. First there are customers. When I installed the Amazon App Store, which has a small fraction of the apps the Google App Market does, I was immediately struck by how many high production-value games there were. I never knew it because I never saw any of them in the Google store. That store just has the same crappy tower defense game, Fruit Ninja, Angry Birds, and Paper Toss day in and day out.

Carriers too stand to gain. From my conversation with a Google employee at GDC, I’m pretty sure that carriers are getting a chunk of the revenue from app markets on all smartphone OSes, including iOS. A better market means more revenue for them plain and simple, both from apps and handset sales. I expect to see Amazon make long-term deals with carriers to get OEMs to install their market by default on devices.

OEMs will benefit by gaining freedom. While Android is an open source OS, the most important app on it, the App Market, is not. It’s proprietary and owned by Google. The App Market has so far been Google’s method of controlling OEMs. For instance in future versions of Android, Google is believed to be mandating that OEMs use the native Android UI by default. Motorola, Samsung, and HTC all have their own UIs right now that they might not be wanting to part with since Android’s stock one is so poor.

With a viable second app store Google loses a good portion of its hold on OEMs. A smartphone OS without an app market is worthless. But if Amazon’s becomes a viable competitor (and it probably is already) then OEMs can tell Google where to stick their app market.

Moreover, they’re now possibly no longer even stuck with Android at all. If Amazon manages to get all of the big players to participate in their App Store, then all any upstart OS has to do is make a deal with Amazon and ensure that Android apps can run on their ecosystem. The RIM Playbook is proving that this is quite possible technically. You’ll never get Google Market on a Blackberry OS (not without lawsuits flying) but you might get the Amazon App Store full of Android apps.

The biggest winners, though, will be developers. Right now despite the fact that Android is a larger ecosystem than iOS, the poor App Market has held it back from seeing much development. iOS apps are simply outselling Android by an order of magnitude. I saw an article last week about something like 8 apps that have made over a million dollars on Android. There will probably be 8 apps that pull in that much revenue today on iOS.

Even Google wins, though they won’t see it that way. If they’re getting little to no revenue from the App Market themselves, which I suspect is the case, they’d be far better off letting a third party handle it. They’re better off having a vibrant app ecosystem on Android coming from a market they don’t control than a crappy ecosystem from one they do. At the end of the day its really apps that sell these phones. Apple’s slogan isn’t “there’s probably a website that could accomplish that” for a reason.

I’ll go ahead and make the bold claim that the Amazon App Store will be the primary driver of app sales on Android within a year. This is the most important thing to happen to smartphones since the original App Store on iOS.

AT&T Must Be Stopped

Posted in tech on March 21, 2011 by themaroon

When I saw the news break this weekend about AT&T and T-Mobile merging I immediately thought “there’s no way this is going to get approved by the FTC”. Today I opened up my RSS reader and there were dozens of articles about what a bad thing this will be for customers. It’s hard to disagree, and I’m famous for my ability to do so.

This will be particularly disastrous for mobile networks because, since they operate via radio waves, it requires a potential upstart to acquire large amounts of spectrum to compete, and in this day in age there isn’t much left to go around. It would be ok to let automobile manufacturers merge down to two because there are always foreign ones to compete with, and anyone with a decent chunk of capital can start their own. (See Tesla). But there’s a very real limit on how much spectrum can be used for mobile devices and we’re pretty much at it. There’s going to come a point, in fact we might actually be there, where you simply can’t start a carrier for any amount of money.

Also the FTC could not possibly approve any other mergers in the space. This particular one will leave three national networks, and the FTC will never let a market that previously had a half dozen competitors consolidate all the way down to two. If this merger goes through, AT&T will have about 1.5x the users and spectrum Verizon does, and Verizon will have no way to catch up.

And what happens if Sprint Nextel fails? They’re having some serious troubles, and while I’m a fan of their service and optimistic that they can turn it around, if they don’t we’re once again stuck with a duopoly. At least then Verizon could possibly pick up their spectrum, but still, that’s not good.

Spectrum is the new gold rush. I’m concerned that if this merger goes through the effects will be both disastrous and irreversible.

GDC

Posted in Games on March 17, 2011 by themaroon

This year we attended the Game Developers Conference in San Francisco. It was a good time and I met lots of interesting people. Attending talks, meeting bloggers, writers, and other developers, and walking the showroom floor is a great way to take the pulse of the industry. The buzz this year was all about mobile gaming.

Smart phones have totally taken mindshare from Facebook. Facebook’s policy changes over the last year have not quite forced all of the independents out, but they’ve certainly made a platform that was previously very indie-friendly no longer so. Smart phone ownership among the two biggest platforms is probably somewhere around 200 million and growing rapidly. There is  good chance that there will be a billion people with iPhone or Android models before there are a billion Facebook users.

Right now mobile gaming pretty much means iOS gaming. Everyone agrees that Android RPUs are just too low and spreading a game there is just too hard. Their app market’s poor usability, difficult payment system, and terrible ranking algorithms, along with Android’s inferior demographics, have discouraged use of it as a discovery tool. Google almost seems to be hoping customers will find apps the same way websites are found (ie. through Google) rather than through a centralized app market, and that’s just not panning out.

There is one bright spot, and that’s free to play games. Android users, like iOS users, monetize well. Especially now that Google is working on carrier billing with major carriers everywhere, if you can get customers in the door you can make money off of them.

I’ve argued with friends over whether or not Facebook would revert their developer platform to its glory days (I contend no) and whether or not Google will improve the app market (ditto) and I’m now more convinced of both. I spoke to a developer advocate for Android and am more convinced than ever that they don’t even understand that their app market is failing, let alone why, and that any changes beyond the cosmetic won’t be coming any time soon. They’ll put out graphical refreshes a couple times a year, but they’ll also keep choosing Google Checkout over something people actually want (PayPal), keep failing to make users sign up for it upon activation, and assure themselves that there terrible ranking algorithms which keep the same three sucky apps at the top of the charts for months at a time are superior.

Tablets were in full force at GDC. I got to play with the Motorola Xoom and the RIM Playbook. The Playbook might do alright with the business crowd, I really don’t know. Both Android and iOS have mediocre at best email applications, which might be a draw. It won’t rival the iPad in sales, but it might have been worth developing for RIM.

Android, on the other hand, will be outselling the iPad possibly this year, and if not definitely in 2011. The Xoom isn’t there yet, but it’s damn close and there will be new tablets shipping every month soon, and by the end of the year even more frequently than that.

It’ll be fun to see where the gaming industry goes. I expect soon we’ll even see a wholesale shift away from consoles toward mobile as the user numbers just dwarf everything that came before.

How Competitors Can Challenge the iPad

Posted in tech on February 22, 2011 by themaroon

New tablets are starting to debut at a rapid pace and many more will be launching over the coming months. While the Galaxy Tab seems to have done modestly well, the iPad is still crushing the market. Most of the Android tablets just don’t look that exciting (yet) but I think by the end of the year that won’t be true.

Tablets need to do a few things to compete with the iPad, I’ll list them here in approximate order.

1. Compete on price. Nobody’s going to buy your Xoom for $800 when they can buy an iPad for $500. The lowest end iPad would seem to be the vast majority of sales. For a long time there when iPads were scarce, you could pretty easily pick one up by stepping up to the $600 level, but a $500 required waiting for weeks. Most people waited.

This makes sense. The whole reason one of these devices work is that everything is in the cloud. Your email is web based. Your video is coming from Netflix. Even your music is going to move into the cloud soon if it hasn’t already. What’s a few gigabytes at that point?

If your device is going to be priced higher than the iPad, there better be a damn good reason. Give me an AMOLED screen for example. (I think we’ll see this in the sequel to the Galaxy Tab, and it will be awesome.)

2. Think more along the lines of a notebook than an oversized iPod. This, I think, is one of Apple’s mistakes, both with the iPad and the iPhone/iPod Touch. They still make me tether my iPad to my PC. Why?  Developers have seen, as a result, that iDevices are often running on older OSes because people don’t want to do that.

And why should they? It’s ridiculous. There’s no reason this device can’t be updated over the air. There’s no reason it can’t sync music over Wi-Fi. With a Bluetooth Keyboard and Mouse this device could be as independent and functional as any notebook. It’s Android competitors will be.

3. Better licensing terms to foster app development. While I’m not in the camp that thinks Apple’s app store policies are unethical or abusive, I am almost certain they’re a strategic mistake. Tablets are a glorified thin client and are largely meaningless without cloud services. When it comes to cloud services, subscription revenues are king.

Forcing good e-reader apps like Amazon’s Kindle, or good video apps (Netflix) off of your device in an attempt to get 30% of revenues from them is a mistake. Those kinds of apps are why the device exists. They don’t have high enough margins to eat 30%. It would have been better to enforce this policy from the beginning so that we wouldn’t have come to love those things only to have them yanked away.

4. Support Flash. This is a no brainer. The lack of Flash is constantly a pain on the iDevices, and none more so than the iPad. Want to look at the website of any high end restaurant? Nope! Watch Hulu? Nope! (That’s partially due to Hulu being a pain in the ass, though you can get around that on Android with some browser string hackery). Play Cityville? Nope.

The lack of Flash is a true annoyance on the iPad. It won’t be on Android devices.

5. USB ports. There’s no reason current accessories can’t be just a driver away from working with tablets. It’s understandable why Apple forces accessory makers to use their certified connector, but for third parties the ability to connect mice, keyboards, printers, cameras, etc. might be enticing. I know I’d love to be able to charge my phone from my iPad.

6. Don’t roll your own OS. We’re in the early 1990’s all over again here, and Apple’s simply repeating their mistakes from the PC market. If you want to compete, just do exactly what the PC makers did. License a good third party operating system (right now that means Android, though I expect there will be a competitor soon, but more on that in another post) that developers are supporting, that is going to give you a software lead which in turn will give you a sales lead.

Though I love WebOS (I’d rate it a 9, iOS a 7.5, and Android a 6 and I’m the only person I know who has used all 3 extensively) I think HP is making a big mistake. They’ve got a chicken and egg problem with their app market. Their hardware is too far behind the times (by the time the WebOS tablet launches the iPad 2 and who knows what Android tablets will be on the market) and they probably don’t have a good enough strategy or big enough ad budget to solve it. The same is true of RIM’s Playbook. 

I think we’re seeing only the beginning of the tablet market right now. We are where smart phones were 4 years ago and the space is really going to heat up. Competitors have the chance to do the same thing to Apple that PC makers did two decades ago.

Bubble 2.0

Posted in Startup on February 17, 2011 by themaroon

There’s been a lot of discussion lately about whether or not we’re in a yet another tech bubble. It’s a complicated question because what exactly is a bubble? Clearly we all agree it involves “irrational exuberance” but to what degree?

Mark Cuban says it’s not a bubble, it’s a pyramid scheme. I think his logic is flawed. It assumes that later investors are paying back the former, which is quite atypical. Most of the action these days is coming from seed and angel investors, who rarely get paid anything before an IPO or acquisition. If anything, convincing later investors to follow on only increases an early angel’s variance, as it raises the figure needed for an acquisition. The public markets, I think, aren’t going to be as easily fooled as last time around and I don’t think anyone’s counting on them being the suckers at the bottom of a pyramid.

Currently there isn’t much bubble-like activity in the public markets. In the first go around I was asked questions like “I just bought 1,000 shares of Cisco, what do they do?”. Back then anything even remotely computer-related had a stratospheric P/E ratio. Most publicly traded tech stocks are trading at reasonable levels now. Even Apple is at 20, compared to an S&P 500 average of 24. There are a couple exceptions (most notably Netflix) but on the whole tech stocks are not out of line with what we’re seeing in other industries.

There are a few big differences this time around. For one there are real revenues and even profits. Groupon will likely top $1 billion this year, and their margins are probably pretty high. Facebook’s may have topped $1 billion last year already. Zynga is pulling in somewhere in the 9 digits. Last time the problem wasn’t that people were giving a company a $50 billion valuation despite it only having $1 billion in revenue, it was that they were giving a multibillion dollar valuation to a company that might not even have a feasible business model. When it comes to P/E ratios, there’s a huge difference between fifty and infinity. Fifty means the company has a proven revenue stream and a high chance of increasing profits through improving operations or scale. Infinity means they might be trying to sell something nobody wants.

I have no doubt that startup valuations are overly high. It’s just to good of a fundraising climate for founders. Even though Y Combinator alone is pumping out 80+ startups a year, the relatively low capital needs have too many investors chasing after two few startups. Even if you assume there are another 80 startups worth funding in the valley every year (and we’re at the point where I’m not sure that’s a safe assumption anymore, at least at the angel level) that’s still not that many opportunities to do an early deal with a team of founders.

So what’s going to happen in the long term? Well, I expect investors are going to see a lot of middling returns. This time around companies, with a few exceptions, aren’t going to crash and burn like last. Even Twitter will probably find a way to make decent revenue. The amount of money that can be made selling ads alone is now substantial thanks to targeting. During the original bubble products like AdSense and virtual goods and freemium services weren’t yet widely understood, and if they had been I think we would have at least seen fewer wipeouts. People know a lot more about making money on the net now than they did a decade ago and that will help a lot when the inevitable correction comes.

Kudos to Nokia

Posted in Mobile on February 16, 2011 by themaroon

The tech blogs are all atwitter about Nokia’s move to Windows Phone 7, and the response is overwhelmingly negative. Personally I think they’re all insane. Nokia’s Stephen Elop has sent a bold signal that he’s not going to sit there and shuffle deck chairs on the Hindenburg while Android and Apple eat the rest of their large but rapidly declining market share in smart phones.

Now, I’m not 100% sure Nokia made the right call going with Windows. Android might have been a better alternative. I can see why they’d go with Windows Phone though. Microsoft is the devil you know. They’re honest about their intentions. They want to make money selling you their operating system and selling apps on it. I’d bet they’re even sharing the latter with Nokia. Their interests are aligned with an OEM’s just as they have been in the PC market for decades now.

Google’s somewhat sneaky about the whole thing. They’ll give you the “open source” operating system, but all the good parts of it are closed source and owned by Google. It may be free as in beer, but it isn’t free as in speech, and it isn’t going to get any freer over time either. If you want access to the Android app market (and if you don’t have that, good luck selling units) you have to play by their increasingly stringent rules, which soon will include using Android’s stock UI.  

Moreover Windows Phone 7 is marketable, Android isn’t. Windows is a brand that, no matter how often maligned it may be by people who read tech blogs is still trusted by most people. Android is a commodity. I’ve asked just about everyone I’ve encountered with a smart phone what operating system they’re on. Most of the Android people say “I don’t know.” Windows and iOS don’t have that problem, and if Nokia wants to create value they need to avoid being a commodity.

As unrecognizable as Android is to customers, Symbian is far worse. Samsung, Motorola, LG, and Sony-Ericsson all moved on because of it. Its web browser sucks. Despite having the largest share in the market its app selection is anemic. It is, as Elop said, a burning platform.

A lot of the nutjobs complaining about “Elopocalypse” say Nokia should have just improved Symbian. But then they’d be looking at, at best, 1-2 years before they had a viable competitor to Android and iOS, and another year at least before the apps arrive, if they ever do at all. The smart phone OS market is going to be won in less time than that. Nokia doesn’t have time to wait for Mr. Right (if you even accept the assumption that there’s significant value in owning the software, which itself is ludicrous) because they need Mr. Right now.

It takes a bold leader to ditch a platform with the highest share in its market. There’s a fine line between courage and stupidity, but I think  they’re on the right side of it. They could spend lots of time and money developing an OS that can compete with what’s out there now, then lots more time and money trying to attract developers to it. And if the first iPhone had just launched this year that might be the way to go. But it didn’t, so it isn’t, and I think Nokia should be commended for having the courage to make a bold play to recoup what they’ve lost.

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