Comments on: The Original iPhone Was A Flop

By: themaroon

themaroon — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:34:16 +0000

You’re right, that link does illustrate my point clearly, with its opening quote of “Both commentators and bloggers continuing to claim that the iPhone million unit mark represents weak demand.” Even after the price cut it was, as I pointed out, nowhere near on track to meet Apple’s expectations.

I don’t disagree that price dropping was predictable and solid strategy. But that alone would not have made the unit what it is today. Not even close. It was the trifecta of price drops again, 3G, and app store, none of which invalidate predictions that the original unit would flop.

By: Matt Brubeck

Matt Brubeck — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:30:17 +0000

The original iPhone sold over a quarter million units in its first week (about the same as the Droid, which no one is calling a “flop”) and over a million in its first quarter. It was frequently sold out for all of summer 2007, so it’s not like they needed to lower prices to move inventory. They were selling them as fast as they could ramp up manufacturing at the time. Lowering prices would have done nothing except reduce Apple’s profit. This post is a good reminder of what demand for the iPhone was like at the time of the price cut in September 2007: http://www.blackfriarsinc.com/blog/2007/09/one-million-iphones-sold

Sure, it reached even larger markets as the price fell. But you really didn’t predict that the cost of a computer product would drop (and capabilities increase) following its launch? Given the history of iPod pricing after each new model launch, it was predictable that Apple would target price-insensitive luxury consumers first and then move steadily downmarket. I see this as a well-executed profit-maximizing plan, not a flop by any stretch.

By: themaroon

themaroon — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:31:47 +0000

I think you’re a bit confused here. Either that or a fanboy rationalizing. Anyone doing serious app development can buy a phone on any carrier. The price of the an iPhone (or an Android unit, or a Pre, or whatever else) with contract for 2 years is less than you pay one good developer for 2 weeks. It’s insignificant.

And the vast majority of the app store comes from English language developers right here in the US or other locations that got the iPhone early. There’s no evidence whatsoever that the ability to hack the iPhone (which was not easy back then, given the number of programmers I know who had an unmodded one) had any effect on the 3G’s success, which itself was not overnight.

Both Android and Palm will be on every carrier and standard with multiple handsets shortly, though that has nothing at all to do with my post. Neither does the fact that Palm is beating its own sales forecasts rather than underperforming them by 30%.

By: Priit

Priit — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:22:19 +0000

You’re so wrong it hurts.

The one of the biggest reasons of iPhone’s success was the unsubsidized selling of original iPhone. That and easy process of unlocking meant that absolutely EVERYBODY around the world who wanted that phone, was also able to buy it and to use it. That’s how the hype got everywhere – everyone around the globe who was somebody also bought one. Except you . This also meant that when AppStore was up, EVERYBODY around the globe was able to buy a development phone – 3G was sold only by AT&T, but there where LOT of 2G phones available on the market. Those things mostly cemented iPhone popularity.

Now let’s go to your beloved Palm Pre and let’s analyze this massive failure. A phone, sold only by one carrier with obsolete US-only standard (6 months later GSM in Germany and UK) – a phone that NOBODY around the globe can buy and can use while the hype is at the highest. Nobody still cannot buy Pre for development – yes I checked, couldn’t fin’d any unlocked GSM Pre…

Not different with Android. Tell me which model I should buy – I need unlocked GSM phone, using 2.0 today and guaranteed upgradeability for at least 2 years. The G1 was epic fail as I know.