Me: I don’t think there is a legal grade of beef worse than what McDonalds serves.
Chad: I wonder why.
Me: Because if there was, they would use that instead.
Me: I don’t think there is a legal grade of beef worse than what McDonalds serves.
Chad: I wonder why.
Me: Because if there was, they would use that instead.
I’ve been really getting into a game called League of Legends lately. It’s the latest incarnation of a relatively new genre of games popularly called “MOBA” or Multiplayer Online Battle Arena. The high-level synopsis is that it’s a real time strategy game (think Warcraft 3) on Ritalin.
Rather than building up slowly from the start, the way you do in a typical RTS, you play a Summoner and start off each game with just one hero character which you choose out of dozens of available ones. You can choose a different hero each time if you like from ones you have unlocked or a set of 10 freely available ones that rotates each week. Each hero has a unique set of abilities and statistics, and there are a few different roles heroes can play. Some are “tanks” who run into battle and start bashing everything in sight, some are “supporters” who hang back a bit and beef up themselves and other allied heroes in the area, some are “carries” who have special abilities that help a team push down towers and bases at the end, etc.
Games are typically played 5 on 5. Both teams have a base on opposite corners of a square map guarded with lots of beefy defensive turrets (the purple and blue objects on the map below) and there are 3 paths between them, each of which has more turrets. Each team spawns minions (the green and red dots) periodically at the same time that move down each of the 3 lanes attacking whatever enemies they find and, if left unmolested, meeting in the middle.
For anyone who has played Warcraft 3 this may sound familiar. It’s based on the popular custom scenario called Defense of the Ancients (or DotA). It’s built by a company called Riot Games, which as far as I can tell has raised somewhere north of $15m and hired 40 people, including some who built DotA, to put it out.
Possibly what fascinates me most is how they monetize: exactly the same way my Facebook games do, by letting people play for free and selling things in-game. They primary sale item seems to be the heroes. There are dozens of them, and you could unlock them yourself by playing a lot and gaining experience, but it would take you forever. Even unlocking one of the top tier heroes could take you weeks of casual play. Instead you can buy them at prices ranging from about $2 to about $8.
We’ve thought a lot about doing some sort of more traditional RTS game on Facebook. The problem is that Facebook games monetize so well because they are persistent. When you buy an android in Starfleet Commander, he provides you with a permanent resource boost. That’s why we went with the perpetual RTS model that we use now, where it’s like a very slow version of Starcraft that lasts forever.
Normal RTS games, however, last generally around a half hour to an hour. Thus it would feel like a waste to a customer to buy something that will only help your team out for that short a period of time. The tough design decision then is finding a way to give people permanent incentives (and therefore advantages) to purchase items while keeping the game somewhat competitive for those who do not.
League of Legends solves this to a large extent with the Summoner/Hero paradigm. Summoners gain persistent advantages over time, both as a reward for playing and from purchasing Riot Points for cash. Heroes start off every battle anew, though they gain some of those persistent advantages.
Summoners level up on a persistent basis. Playing games nets you experience that increases your level. With each level you get a mastery point and a rune slot. The mastery point lets you improve one of the two Summoner spells you choose for your hero at the beginning of every match. The rune slots allow you to purchase runes (using another type of points earned by playing) that increase your hero’s stats as well.
Heroes also level up in-game, but start each game again at level 1. So if a level 20 Summoner playing a hero called Ashe faces a level 1 Summoner also using Ashe, their heroes both start off with the same base stats. The only differences are that the level 20 guy will have more and better runes and better masteries, giving him a pretty serious advantage.
Because of the level advantage provided by runes and masteries, a strong matchmaking algorithm is necessary. I feel this is the biggest flaw in the game so far. The matchmaking is very uneven.
From what I can gather they use an ELO-style rating system (similar to what chess uses) that is unseen by players to determine (probably to a fairly accurate degree) each team’s chances of winning. They try to match up players such that they will win half of their matches and lose half.
The problem with this system is that a game is fun when teams are evenly matched and the 50/50 split is a result of that. The problem is that there are other ways to get a 50/50 split than evenly matched teams.
Suppose, for instance, you took a group of 5 Level 20 Summoners. One game you matched them up against 5 Level 40 Summoners, giving them effectively no chance to win. The next game you matched them up against 5 Level 1 Summoners, giving them effectively no chance to lose. Your group of 5 guys just won one game and lost one, but neither were fun at all.
While the net effect of their ranking system isn’t quite that drastic, it’s not far off either when you’re new to the game. Once you have some experience, though it seems to improve a decent amount.
I found out, through our Starfleet Forums, that one of the game’s designers happens to play our game and had a chance to talk to him about it. It sounds like they know it’s a problem and are working on improving it. I’m sure they will. It’s a tough problem to get people in even matches, especially when time is a factor (nobody wants to wait more than a couple minutes for a game to start) and one that I imagine they will be able to improve upon greatly both with effort and as their user base grows.
Interestingly, matchup quality will give them somewhat of a network effect when competing against other games in the genre, much the way game selection did for online poker. The more players you have, the more you will be able to get, say, a group of 10 level 1s all playing together in 2 minutes.
Either way I’m excited to see where they go with this. Riot Games is really breaking ground with their business model, and doing it while making a big-budget, high quality downloadable game. They’ll be one of the startups on my watch list for the next couple years.
Us app developers spend a lot of time trying to figure out how to “hack” the platform. By hack I mean make our apps spread better without violating the sort of rules that get you banned from the platform. One of the most notable and successful hacks is allowing users to send gifts to other active users via requests.
This works because Facebook limits the number of requests users can send based on a few factors. The key one seems to be blocks, the number of times a user blocks your app based on invites. The lower the blocks, the more invites per day you get. The second (but apparently much less relevant) factor is the acceptance ratio.
So when you have one user give another user something free in the game every day, it dramatically lowers your blocks rate and increases your acceptance rate. Unfortunately this sort of hack is easily discovered just by playing the top apps and incorporated into every actively-developed app on the platform in a matter of weeks. I’ve mentioned before that this has virtually no effect on reducing spam, but instead just makes your app’s spread based solely on the value of gifting in the app, which is idiotic (and probably not what Facebook intended at all, though it took them a full year to do anything about it) and will probably be fixed by the new platform changes.
But recently Facebook hacked their own platform for us. Somewhere around 1 to 2 months ago, they had a bug in the platform that made users unable to block apps. You would click the link to block the app that you got a request for and get an error.
It took them a week or two to fix that bug, and over that time us developers saw our invite quotas spike as our blocks rate dropped to 0. And interestingly even after Facebook fixed the bug that had disabled blocks they seemed to have yet another bug that didn’t track when the blocks happened. Despite the fact that users were undoubtedly blocking apps just as they had before the bug, every app’s Insights stats showd 0% blocks. Within a couple weeks every app on the platform had the full 60 requests per day.
Inside Social Games posted yesterday asking why app traffic was dropping, and whether it was due to the holidays or something more. While the holidays don’t help, it was mainly due to apps dropping from 60 invites per day to 8. This was also compounded by the new Facebook rules that app developers cannot gate content based on the number of friends a user invites, but I suspect those had significantly less effect than the invite limit.
My guess: they’re serious about claiming they’re serious about fighting it, and that’s about it. It’s not their fault, it’s the nature of the game.
Between them and ustream, I was always able to find a Stanley Cup playoffs stream, and not just of the finals either. The rooms were linked to from some popular forums, and persisted from one game to another, so it wouldn’t have been hard to prevent.
And it’s not surprising. If this traffic graph:
http://siteanalytics.compete.com/justin.tv+ustream.tv/
is even close to correct it’s a dead heat between those two sites. Guess what’s likely to tip the scales in one’s favor?
YouTube got big largely on copyrighted content. In fact still the most popular clips there are professionally-produced music videos. The simple fact is that user generated content is largely crap that nobody cares about, and all of it added together isn’t as in-demand as one Katy Perry video.
So the video sites will go around claiming “we’re covered by the DMCA” and “we’re developing software to stop it” but really their incentive is purely to allow copyright violations, and shocker, that’s what they do.
It’s no secret that most people use the same password over and over again for most of the services they sign up for. While it’s obviously convenient, this becomes a major problem if one of those services is compromised. And that looks to be the case with RockYou, the social network app maker.
This is no surprise to anyone who has ever dealt with RockYou. These people are as dumb as a box of rocks. That they’ve raised $119 million never ceases to amaze me. Here are just two of my experiences so far.
1. When emailing all developers, instead of using some mailing list software, or hell even BCCing everyone, they simply CC’ed hundreds or maybe thousands of people. On multiple occasions. Despite having promised to fix it after the first.
Once they sent out one that said “Merry Christmas” filling my Inbox with scores of replies, half of which said “Merry Christmas to you too!” and half of which said “take me off of this list.”
2. Negotiating a two-week ad run with us, followed by sending us a contract for x months. When returned, sending us a contract for 2x months. When we decided “what the hell?” and signed it, having run the ad for far longer than 2x months and then sending us a massive bill.
So yeah, this doesn’t exactly come as a surprise. RockYou is the short bus of the social games industry. I’m just glad I use Roboform so all any potential hacker got is some random string used only for them. And I’m not worried about someone getting my email address since RockYou already sent that out to everyone.
My vanity alert buzzed this week with a link to this forum thread (you may have to manually scroll to the top) quoting a bunch of people who said the iPhone would be a flop. Fanboys love nothing better than pointing out every time someone made a prediction about Apple failing, where it clearly succeeded.
The problem is that a large portion of the quotes were correct in context, including mine and Steve Ballmer’s. Mine, which came from this blog post, was:
“It’ll sell a couple million units to the many people who have wet dreams about Steve Jobs, and that will be about it.”
Matt Maroon, MattMaroon.com , 7 May 2007
and Ballmer’s was:
“Five hundred dollars? Fully subsidized, with a plan? It is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard which makes it not a very good email machine…”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, January 2007
Both quotes, as evidenced by the dates, were about the first iPhone, and both turned out to be correct.
When Apple first announced the iPhone they set a goal of selling 10 million units by the end of 2008, a goal they would never have made with the iPhone we were talking about. Both of our arguments centered on the pricing. If you read my blog post I specifically mention the pricing as the major issue in almost every paragraph.
Originally the unit wasn’t selling well at all. So Apple dropped the price a few weeks after it launched, pissing off the early adopters of course. Why? Because me and Steve Ballmer were correct.
Even after that price cut, it continued to underperform. Ballmer and I were more correct than even we knew. According to Apple’s own sales figures, the original iPhone sold only 6.1 million units in 5 quarters. When your sales target is 10 million units in 6 quarters, that’s about 27% below where you’re aiming, even with a price cut. I’m sorry, but that’s a flop.
Then, of course, things changed. Apple released the iPhone 3G, which was most definitely not a flop. The combination of a lower price, 3G speeds (which had become standard for smart phones nearly a year before the first iPhone launched) and, perhaps most importantly, the App Store did for the iPhone what the Nano did for the iPod. It’s now undeniably a success, in some ways even a game changer.
And that’s not really surprising to me, or probably to Ballmer (though he’s contractually obligated to never admit it) or most of the others quoted back then. It’s what they did with the iPod. The first of those were expensive and of extremely limited appeal too. Apple does product development just like everyone else, often better than everyone else (though they too have their Apple TVs) and they refined the iPod greatly over successive generations until they had a winner. They got there a bit faster with the iPhone, but they also had a lot more experience and a much larger ad budget to work with too.
But I think we’ve found a great test for fanboyism. If you relish in applying predictions about a $500-$600 device with no 3G and no app store to a device that costs $100-$300 and does have both 3G and an app store, you’re a fanboy. Or just someone with little capacity for logic. Either way, enjoy those dreams about Steve.
Those devices are all behind me now. I disconnected everything, threw it to the side and canceled the cable months ago. Instead, now I have a Mac Mini, wireless mouse and a Microsoft Xbox hooked up to my television.
I’ve been doing this for years. I have uTorrent download the few shows I want to watch via RSS automatically, then stream them to my Xbox 360. Thankfully with Windows 7, I can now view them through the Media Center function on Xbox, which previously could not read DivX and forced you to go through the less powerful video player.
When I want to watch something that is unreliable through Bittorrent (which is pretty much any show broadcast daily. For me it’s occasionally The Daily Show and The Colbert Report, but for others it might be The Tonight Show, etc.) I use PlayOn ($40 to purchase, no ongoing fees) to stream Hulu to my Xbox. It even lets me fast forward through the commercials.
The setup is not quite as seamless as cable and a DVR. Hulu keeps trying to break PlayOn and other software like it. They’re never more than a day or two behind with a patch, but still it gets annoying at times. Also sometimes it just won’t work, for no reason I can determine, until I reboot my computer.
Bittorrent is far more reliable. If you’re watching any once a week show, there’s an RSS feed for it, and the only bottleneck in the streaming process is your home network. For less than you pay for cable in 2 months, you can get a nice 802.11n router and matching network cards, which will greatly increase range and throughput.
Still, it’s a lot cheaper. I’m saving probably $1,000-$2,000 a year for a service I barely used.
The only real loss (and it isn’t much of one for me) is there are no live sports. You cannot simply watch a hockey game at home. But that just means the Stanley Cup gives me a reason to get out of the house, which is not a bad thing anyway.
Because here’s what happened. Some hack had an idea and went to his editor with it: Hey, you know, Google says “Don’t be evil,” but you know what? They really are kind of the new evil empire, aren’t they?
Editor says, Okay, let’s do it, but whatever you do, don’t just fucking say that! Jesus! You’ll get us all killed!
Hack says, So what do we do? Editor says, Let’s find other person who will say Google is evil, and we’ll quote him. See? But then make sure you find other people who say that the first guy is full of shit. So that way when someone reads the article they won’t know what the fuck to think. Is Google evil? Yes, absolutely. But no, not at all. This, my son, is how you stay relevant in the fast-moving world of information — by publishing
pointless stories that don’t reach any conclusioner, deep insightful analysis that lets people make sense of the world around them
That right there explains why The Economist is the only print publication actually doing well these days. They’re not afraid to take a stance. They don’t get opposing quotes from people with vested interests in the outcome, they just tell you their opinion straight out.
In any event, in order for the e-reader market to thrive publishers must lower their wholesale prices so that distributors can turn a reasonable profit. We believe that if the price is lowered enough publishers may earn less per unit, but could ultimately earn more in overall revenue and profit through a greater number of sales. This, of course, benefits the e-book distributors as well.
People always apply the laws of supply and demand oblivious to other factors. They say “well if we just lower the price, more people will buy these books”.
That isn’t necessarily true because people can only devote so much time to reading. Much of the investment a person makes in a book isn’t money (at least not directly) it’s time.
It’s entirely possible that the price of books is set by other factors, such as competing books. People may largely decide they want a book, then shop around, and buy one. Which one they buy may have to do with pricing, in fact that may be the key factor in pricing (if I’m on the fence about two books, I’ll go with the one that costs lest).
So you can’t simply assume that “if the price is lowered enough publishers may earn less per unit, but could ultimately earn more in overall revenue and profit through a greater number of sales.” It’s quite probably untrue.
I’d actually argue that if you want to sell more books, you should make them shorter. Fewer pages will get the reader through it faster. I’m sure this will only work to a point, as nobody wants to pick up a “book” that feels more like a “pamphlet” but perhaps digital media (where all of your ebooks weigh the same as the Kindle you read them on) will change that too.
I was reading this hatchet job from Reuters about Starbucks because, well, I’m a glutton for intellectual punishment. It’s about how Starbucks has been experimenting with stores using other branding, trying to go for a more local feel.
This article posits that “Perhaps consumer really do want something more than branded artifice; they want something genuinely local.” Bullshit.
This is wishful thinking on the part of people with a fetish for local mom-and-pop businesses. They write the same victory speeches on their LiveJournals every time one Wal-Mart moves out of a neighborhood, despite the fact that for every instance of that hundreds more move in.
Starbucks is facing attacks on all sides. They’ve got Peet’s and Caribou growing quickly. They’ve got McDonalds and Dunkin Donuts both heavily promoting their coffee lines these days. They’ve got the fact that they drastically overbuilt in the first place (though I thank them for it, as it inspired what was quite possibly the greatest standup comedy bit of all time) coupled with a double-digit unemployment rate that makes people think twice about that daily $5 cup of joe.
True, they do have local coffee shops improving the quality of their offerings as a direct response to Starbucks. Unlike retail, which is all about using volume to reduce costs while retaining a thin sliver of a profit margin, it’s not nearly so hard for local businesses to compete in an industry with 1,000% markup. The fact that they have to buy their coffee for 20% more than the chains is virtually irrelevant.
But people don’t give a shit about locality or being different, at least not enough people to matter. They all eat at Fridays and Olive Garden and shop at Wal-Mart and Target. Hell, go to any public place and at least 75% of people are wearing pants made of the same fabric and in the same color. Seinfeld once joked that we all ought to wear the same thing, the way aliens always do in sci-fi movies. Well, we haven’t settled on the shirt yet but we’re half way there.
So it’s hard for me to believe that a nation full of people who all own at least 4 pairs of blue jeans really worry about sameness when it comes to buying a latte. That’s just wishful thinking on the part of people resistant to change.
I don’t know where mom-and-pop stores got this recent mystique, but the whole fetish is just the modern equivalent of tilting at windmills. Thankfully it’s relegated largely to blogs and drum circles too, because I do love my Venti Apple Chai Latte.