Archive for June, 2008

Semantics and Micropayments

Posted in tech on June 3, 2008 by themaroon

Some sort of semantic argument sprung up around my last post, centered on whether or not downloading a song illegally is stealing. I’m not sure what the point is, as it’s a mostly irrelevant distinction, at least in the context of my article. There’s not one conclusion that would be different if it were, instead of theft, some other crime. I should have deleted it from the comments here (or at least stopped it by pointing that out) for that reason, but I didn’t.

I do know that most people who illegally download music call it stealing or pirating (because pirates steal) so it isn’t just RIAA spin that has most people considering it theft, even if it is not. It was called that long before the recording industry even knew it was occurring. I’m sure they’ve done what they could to further that view, but most people hate the record labels so much that they actually like the idea of stealing from them, so in the end it doesn’t really help their case.

Music piracy and theft both deprive the owner of something of monetary value. Piracy is clearly not a 1:1 ratio like stealing a watch is, since much of the pirated music would not have been purchased anyway, and the copyright owner still has possession. But it seems pretty obvious that piracy does reduce the profits of some people who have a right to them. So if it’s not theft, I think the distinction is mostly legal, rather than moral, and the fact that most people call it that makes me think that the general population agrees.

Also, there’s been a little back and forth about micropayments. I’ll show you right now why I don’t believe in them as a replacement revenue source for certain types of content (though I do think they have solid potential as a new revenue source for other types):

 

That blurry cell phone picture (shot from a moving car) is of a Papa John’s pizza shop near my house here in BFE. The reason for the line? They were giving away pizzas worth about $5. It was 45 degrees and rainy that day. What you’re seeing is the rear of the store and the back part of the side. The line wrapped out the door, around the building, through the area in this picture, and continued on at least that far again into another business’s parking lot.

I should note, that I live in an area where most people have at least an acre of land, and lots of people have cattle, so this is a huge portion of the surrounding population. I also happened to drive by one in Cleveland on the same day, and the line was much longer. And less blurry.

These people and some unfathomable amount of others like them were willing to go through hours of waiting in the near-freezing rain to get a pizza they could have purchased elsewhere for less than what the average American makes in 15 minutes. Why? Because it’s free.

Evolutionary psychologists have studied the effect of free, and it’s enormous. But you don’t need to read a book on the topic to believe. Just open your mailbox. Almost every advertisement that comes in promises you something for free, and the rest promise you something at a steep discount. Infomercials all follow the same ridiculous pricing format because people are much more likely to pay $19.99 for something if they’re told it was originally $60 than if the same item were listed at $19.99. Free is our favorite word, and our second favorite is discount.

People will clearly pay for things that they don’t have to in some situations, especially if it’s a societal norm. Tipping comes to mind. But even then, it’s been shown that people generally engage in that sort of behavior only when watched. We usually tip the waiter, who we can see, because the ability to put a face to them causes us to empathize and we know that that is how they make their living. We can almost feel the impact on them of receiving no money for the half hour of work they put into us. But far less frequently will we tip a hotel maid because we don’t have that sense.

(Evolutionary psychologists might argue that reciprocal altruism is our primary motivator, and that we can feel that when we see the waitress. She brings us food, we help her pay her bills.)

I would love to believe that people, in significant numbers, would pay significant amounts for things that they could simply not pay for when nobody is watching them, just to support our creative economy. But I know too many people and have read too much about our psyche. We as a species clearly evolved to jump on anything free we happen to come across.

Micropayments fly in the face of our genetics. They ask us to pay for something that we don’t have to, whose owner can’t see us, and whose face we can’t see, and without any form of pressure from society. And I’m sure that some people will do so. But enough to replace the multibillion dollar recorded music industry?

I think micropayments could work very well for blogs though. Blogs are a numbers game. Gizmodo gets about 2 million visitors a day (plus god knows what else from RSS feeds) all on a yearly budget probably less than what it takes to produce one Britney Spears album. If 1% of visitors give 10 cents, that’s almost $750k in revenue per year. If a Britney Spears CD is a smash hit and sells 5 million copies, and you use the same percentages, you get $5,000. Even if you figure the CD to be significantly more valuable, and 10% of people give, it’s still trivial relative to production costs.

Web comics, video creators, etc., could use tipping to augment or maybe even replace advertising. I sure hope we see that day. And I’m definitely not trying to slam TipJoy (or anyone else in the micropayment market for that matter, if there is anyone else) because I think they’ve got the best shot of bringing it about. There are other reasons why people don’t give (mainly effort) and they’re b a system that reduces friction to a theoretical minimum. PayPal has more or less blown a golden opportunity to do this, and I’m glad to see someone else try.

I’d love nothing more than web-based content creation to be a viable job for 10x as many people, because we’d probably end up with 100x as much content. But I think that throwing out copyright laws will have the opposite effect on the media industry that we now have. Record labels may be taking their sweet time in evolving to a digital distribution model, but they’re doing it. They’re even removing DRM now. Slowly but surely, they’re getting it. Without IP protection, there’s little chance for them, and the movie studios would be dead in the water.

IP

Posted in Me Thinking So You Don't Have To on June 2, 2008 by themaroon

One of the most frequent arguments I have with friends in the tech industry is about copyrights. A lot of them take a similar stance to Mike Arrington‘s, that it’s time to more or less abandon them completely. Often they phrase it as intellectual property that needs to be abandoned, but you can almost always quickly get them to agree that trademarks (which are clearly intellectual property) should not.

The problem, as I see it, is that we don’t have many options. I’d like to believe in a world where all IP could reasonably be funded by voluntary micropayments or some form of philanthropy, but it seems that all evidence points to the contrary. In TechCrunch‘s own recent article on TipJoy, they pointed out that only 25% of people who clicked the tip button (which, in turn, is a small percentage of all people who view the content the button is attached to) actually pay up. And honestly, 25% is higher than I would have expected (though fitting with what I’ve seen from first hand use) and I think actually speaks well about them.

Micropayments have failed to materialize thus far largely because of the penny gap. The biggest cost difference on the web is that between $0 and $0.01. There’s just so much headache involved in paying for something on the internet. Typing in credit card numbers, personal information like address and telephone number. It’s easy to see why most people won’t go through that to tip, no matter how good their intentions.

They also fail because humans have a natural, ingrained tendency to want things for free. We have a strong aversion to paying for things that we don’t have to, especially when we know that our actions are unseen. We’ll do it for certain reasons (I’ll get to that in a second) but not frequently enough to support any sort of economy.

Don’t get me wrong, I think micropayments might have their place. They may actually work out for bloggers, people who write web comics, etc. if TipJoy or a service like it takes hold. Anyone who deposits to TipJoy only has to cross the penny gap once and can then make a large number of micropayments. There’s clearly a chicken/egg problem there, but that’s the best solution to it I’ve seen so far. I’m still skeptical of even that, but I’m open to the possibility that TipJoy or someone like them might figure it out and make micropayments at least relevant to some content creators.

But it isn’t going to replace the traditional revenue system supporting all forms of creation. It costs millions of dollars to produce a full-length album, and tens or even hundreds of millions to produce a movie. Micropayments will never make those viable; it just won’t happen. Bloggers who can pump out a few posts a day, sure. Artists who can make one CD a year, or a movie crew that might consume 100 man-years? No way.

And, most importantly, I don’t think our current copyright system is failing. I think that right now it’s working incredibly well. iTunes is proof of that. Despite the fact that anyone with an iPod could, with just a little effort, fill it with stolen music, millions of people are paying to do so. Without the laws we have in place, that would not happen.

People opt to pay for their music for a number of reasons. One is legality. Some people feel it immoral to steal music, so they don’t. Another, probably more important reason, is convenience. It’s just easier to find your music on iTunes, and you know the quality is going to be good. Download a CD off of eMule or Bittorrent (if you can even find what you want) and you have no clue what you’re going to get.

All of the above reasons exist only because of our current copyright law. Without it, it would be trivial for someone to set up an iTunes equivalent that was just as easy to use and far cheaper because they wouldn’t have to pay the content creation industry royalties. And it would be legal. People would get their music for free, or nearly free, and the record labels and recording artists would be screwed.

(As I’ve argued before though, I think music is going to shift to a profit model based on live performance, and CDs will be funded by promoters, so we’ll see more and more artists giving their recorded music away as a sort of advertisement for their main gig. This won’t work for books or movies though.)

Enforced copyrights incent creation. And even when they can only be enforced on corporations in our country and ones cooperative with our copyright laws, they still uphold a viable economic system. You might argue that musicians will still make music, writers will still write, and painters will still paint. And you’d be right to some extent, but it would clearly be far fewer. People played basketball for fun long before there was an NBA, but the popularity and salary that comes along with being a professional has brought millions to the game. Today some high school teams are probably as good as most professional ones of 50 years ago due to the increased competition. Without IP protection, the industries that have made our media our chief cultural export would be economically unfeasible.

I have to say that I largely side with Viacom in the lawsuit. YouTube is clearly not an ISP and, for a long time, clearly violated both the letter and the spirit of the law. They built a business on the infringement of copyrights, and they deserve to be penalized for doing so. Since the Google acquisition they seem to have shifted more and more toward being law-abiding citizens, and they might be making reasonable enough efforts in that regard now, but for the first part of their existence their violation was rampant and flagrant.

I might disagree with Viacom about whether or not it was harmful to them (and I think they get digital media more than most, as evidenced by The Daily Show’s website) but it’s certainly their right to decide that. It’s their content.

Arrington also writes:

My position is that it’s bad to criminalize natural behavior.

I’d like to point out that most evolutionary biologists would tell you that rape, murder, and theft are all natural human behaviors. Theft of a song is no more natural than theft of a car, so should we take those laws off the books too? The entire point of civilization is to criminalize natural behaviors that are harmful to the group and impede the rights of individuals. And while I think we currently go too far in our attempts to do so, and it’s certainly a slippery slope, a blanket statement that it’s bad to criminalize natural behavior is nonsense.

I point that out because it’s frequently heard in the IP argument. “People are going to steal music and video and you can’t stop them, so it shouldn’t be illegal.” Perhaps. But even if so, that doesn’t mean we should let corporations do it. Individuals stealing music or movies or books doesn’t make the industries that produce them economically unviable. In some cases the same technology that facilitates such theft makes them even more profitable, and it certainly seems that digital distribution may do the same once old media evolves. But letting corporations off the hook for flagrant copyright violation would give them no shot at sustained profits and destroy our creative culture.

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