MattMaroon.com

So I’ve been predicting for a few months that Barack Obama will be our next president. I became of that opinion after I saw him on Letterman last spring. The interview wasn’t anything substantive really, so my opinion wasn’t due to anything he said, and it still isn’t because what politicians say doesn’t really seem to have much effect on their success in elections. It’s more how they say it, and Obama does that better than anyone.

Since then I’ve talked to or read blogs written by people who’ve seen the man speak every so often, and they all refer to the experience the same way someone who saw Martin Luther King might. They’re practically hypnotized when they talk about it, even the ones who don’t agree with his stances. In fact, just the fact that they mention the experience of seeing him speak, rather than what it is he said, shows his aptitude.

And when you look back through modern history and start naming great leaders, pretty much the only common thread is their incredible communication skill. Especially since the advent of television almost all powerful men were great speakers. Guys like MLK, Lincoln, Churchill, FDR, Reagan. They all had that power to put words together in such a way that even if they really said nothing of substance, or maybe even said something you disagreed with, you found yourself cheering, not for what they stood for, but for them.

And that’s Obama. He can talk for an hour, say nothing, and people will nod their heads. That’s the most valuable skill in politics. And, without even knowing what he believed or having the slightest clue what he intended to do if elected, that was enough to convince me that he would be. Not that he should, but that he would.

I even tried to get some money on intrade to try to bet on him when his shares were trading below 20, but I couldn’t get any of my credit cards through, as is often the case on gambling sites. I was planning on betting a grand, which would have returned me about $4,000 in profit as of today. Damn I hate the UIGEA.

So the Iowa results were unsurprising to me, though at the same time, I didn’t really take them as confirmation of anything. Hell, Mike Huckabee won too, and I think he has zero chance, though that may just be wishful thinking on my part. If I thought that I lived in a country where he may one day be president I’d lie awake every night shaking in fear.

I’ve taken what I’ve seen from him since as more evidence though. His victory speech has had an incredible response on the net and in the mainstream media. The amount of links to it I’ve seen in blogs from various niches, even ones which rarely if ever wax political, has been amazing.

I’ve only recently come to an actual opinion on Obama’s stances myself, and for the most part I like the guy. I’ll talk more about individual issues later, but I think the only issue I strongly disagree with him on is government funded health care, but I guess I’m just too libertarian at heart to have faith in the government’s ability to succeed at such a large undertaking.

And what I like best about him is his technological bent. He’s pro science (especially stem cells), and, most importantly, fiercely in favor of net neutrality, which I think is one of the most important economic and civil issues our country has faced in a very long time. (I actually feel that nothing short of an Amendment will suffice there.)

After him I like Clinton (and I’m speaking in terms of chance of winning only, not personal opinion). Edwards is just too hypocritical. He’s ultra-wealthy, yet markets himself almost entirely to the poor. He’s too liberal for the general public and a terrible campaigner.

On the Republican side I like McCain. I think he’s working on a comeback. A year and a half ago I thought he had the presidency locked up, provided Gore didn’t run, but he spent a good twelve months or so shooting himself in the foot. His flip-flopping on torture and support of Bush on the Iraq war have taken a huge toll on his public image, and I think the damage has been too much for him to actually win the Presidency, but he might get to the finals.

Giuliani is going to have a tough time due to all of the skeletons in his closet, and McCain’s experience campaigning, but he’s still a pretty close second due to the nation’s perception of his strong leadership after 9/11.

I like Romney a bit on a personal level, as I trust anyone who made that much money himself to at least act rationally, but I think his being a Mormon makes him unelectable. That’s only one rung below Scientologist on the crazy ladder to most people. Your mythology has to be at least a millennia old before it is socially acceptable, so maybe in another 700 or so years one of his kind can win. Luckily for him the business world isn’t as prejudiced.

So that’s my rundown. It will be interesting to see what happens in New Hampshire and beyond.

 

 

 

This entry was posted on January 8, 2008 at 8:21 pm and is filed under Opinions You Would Agree With If You Weren\'t An Idiot . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed Both comments and pings are currently closed.