I found this article, Wired’s 10 Startups Worth Watching in 2008, via Hacker News. Here are my thoughts:
1. 23andMe: Interesting, but still way too expensive for mass adoption, not to mention the privacy concerns. I’d ignore them for ’08, but maybe check back in ’09.
2. 37Signals: This must be a joke. They’ve been around forever, and I know of nobody who pays them for a single product. As far as I can tell, all they do is write a blog about how to make money off of software. In terms of credibility, that’s one notch above my marlin fishing website.
The only useful thing they’ve ever created is Ruby on Rails, and that they open-sourced. So unless Wired meant to watch for 37 Signals to join the deadpool, I think you can safely ignore them next year,
3. AdMob: I’m skeptical about the viability of mobile advertising. It’s still near-impossible for a user to take action. Maybe when all cell phones have decent browsers, data plans, and GPS (for localized ads) but that won’t be in 2008. It might not be the case in 2010, and even if it is, Google will be a far more formidable opponent then.
4. Bit Torrent: The protocol I love, the company, not so much. Everyone already uses the protocol to download high-resolution files quickly, but without the company’s involvement. It’s called uTorrent/Mininova. The "legal" version will have crappy content and be unable to compete.
5. Dash: Winner. By far the best of this group. They’ve still got some worries. They’re extremely expensive when you factor in the service, and the product is not very compelling at its price point without that. And the growing ubiquity of factory-included GPS systems doesn’t bode well for them.
They’re going to have to get the price down first. This is endemic to any new tech though, and I’m sure they will, but the question is, can they do it fast enough? They may have to lower prices very quickly. 3rd party GPS systems are marked for extinction. It’s inevitable that at some point, the vast majority of new cars will be sold with GPS systems already installed. At that point after-market GPS makers will be fighting for scraps.
I feel like there’s enough time left between now and then for a system to make a big splash, lock up the market, and have some leverage with auto makers, but there probably isn’t much to spare.
Also notice that they got the joint funding from Sequoia and KPCB, keeping both from funding a competitor.
6. Fon: Not sure. On one hand, free Wi-Fi is compelling. On the other, sharing your Wi-Fi is not. Also, 3G and Wi-Max are in the process of blanketing the country with high speed wireless net that doesn’t force you to be in range of a small router or disconnect and reconnect while traveling.
7, LinkedIn: Maybe the second best in this roundup. They’ve become sort of the default social network for professionals, a good demographic to attract. I don’t even know how some of the people I’ve met found me on there. They do a hell of a job at suggesting people you may know.
8. Powerset: Everyone’s been hyping this one for some time, but I’m still not buying it. I think Peter Norvig hit the nail on the head with his synopsis of natural language search. Nobody wants to type in sentences, except maybe in rare cases. Word relationships are important, and I doubt anyone can outgun Google enough for long enough there to overcome the brand name. Powerset is going to be a highly publicized dud.
9. Slide: Yeah, maybe. I’m skeptical 2008 can be anywhere near as good as 2007 was for them, but I’ll be looking to see if they prove me wrong.
10. Spock: Turd basically. I typed Matt Maroon in there, got nothing but other people of the same name. Type it in Google, and all but the bottom result on the first page are me. (I’m slipping too, I used to be the whole top 3 pages. I need to write another book.)
Oddly they recognize me as Matthew Maroon. Nobody but my Dad calls me Matthew. And I’m guessing all of the people they recognize as Matt Maroon are technically Matthew Maroons too, as I’ve never met anyone whose full name was Matt.
I don’t see them ever building a site that’s compelling enough to make anyone go there instead of Google.
