Why The iPhone Will Be A Flop


I love Apple fanboys. They never stop drinking Apple’s Kool-Aid. See this latest piece in support of the iPhone. It’s wrong in so many places. Let’s examine.

The original iPhones will start at $499 and $599 this June.

Nope. It’s $499 and $599 with a two year contract. As Lewis Black would say, “big fuck difference”. The 2 year contract is so odious that it counts, for all intents and purposes, as an extra $100, maybe more, in the mind of customers. Every single person in America has, by now, been stuck in a two year contract they wished they could get out of, and they haven’t forgotten that. It also serves to make the item ungiftable, more on that in a second.

Look at what happened with the iPod, which started at $399 in 2001. The average selling price for an iPod in Apple’s just-reported Q2 2007 was about $160; a year ago, it was about $200.

True, the original iPod was $400, but it didn’t sell all that much, and there’s a very steep curve when it comes to price and popularity. Cut an item’s price in half and ten times as many people will buy it. The difference between $400 and $500 with a 2 year contract is tremendous.

Most importantly, because the iPod has no contract associated with it it’s a Christmas/birthday gift. In fact, it’s the gift. What percentage of iPods were given rather than purchased by the end user? From data I’ve found, it appears to be over 27% for Christmas alone. Count in other occasions and we might be over 40%. That’s enormous. Not many people have the means to give someone a $500 phone and pay the contract for two years.

There’s a difference between “phones” and “smartphones”. I have no idea how one draws the line, but a good rule of thumb is that smartphones are expensive and regular phones are free (with plans) or very cheap. Apple isn’t trying to sell 10 million phones by the end of 2008; they’re trying to sell 10 million smartphones.

The definition of smartphone is certainly murky, but I’m not sure the iPhone counts. I personally tend to think of a smartphone as one that appeals to businesses. The iPhone has no corporate appeal whatsoever. It doesn’t have push email that any corporate user could want. No big business uses Yahoo for their email or ever would, unless they come up with something similar to BlackBerry Enterprise Server. Leaving data in another corporation’s hands is understandably unpopular. And it doesn’t have a dedicated keypad, without which typing emails cannot be a very good experience. Even if their touch screen is significantly better than any that came before, it’s not going to be good enough.

Maybe I’m the moron, but the way I see it, if the iPhone’s initial price is wrong, it’s too low, not too high.

Maybe, if that 499 is in pesos. If that’s USD dollars and you think it’s underpriced then yes, you are the moron.

There are millions of people who have already spent $399–599 on an iPod within the last few years. With the exception of storage capacity, the iPhone does everything these iPods do, and, well, a whole lot fucking more. Why wouldn’t these same people think about spending $499 or more on an iPhone?

Are there? Where are those stats? And how many of them had 4 gb of storage?

And have ten million of them at those prices sold in eighteen months? I doubt it. I’d be surprised if there are ten million people total who’ve spent that much. And again, there’s a whopping difference between an item that costs $499 as a giftable standalone, and an item that costs $499 with a two year cell-phone contract. And a 4GB iPod that costs around $200 and anything that costs $499 with a two year contract aren’t in the same ballpark. They’re not even in the same sport.

Think about how much people would spend on a next-generation iPod that does everything the iPhone does but without the phone: Wi-Fi networking, camera, full-size touch screen, OS X with email and web browsing. Apple could (and might) sell that for $499.

Not really, especially if it only has 4 GB and doesn’t play DivX. The people who could pay $500 already have far better email and a passable camera on their Blackberry. And once again, there is a whopping difference between $499 and $499 with a two year contract. You can’t ignore the difference repeatedly; doing so destroys your whole argument.

I really do think that the biggest disconnect between iPhone fanboys and reality is the two year contract. They talk about the phone as if it’s a $499 iPod. I can’t stress enough the fact that it isn’t. It isn’t giftable. And it’s really considerably more than $499, which nobody is paying for 4 GB of storage. Make it 60 GB and we’ll talk.

Why worry about the iPhone’s appeal to corporate IT?

It’s big and bulky. It’s not a gift, so the only kind of people who can reasonably afford it working in corporate America. Those who would want (and could afford) this phone already have a Blackberry, and because iPhone uses some crappy Yahoo email, they can’t give up their Berries. And because of that, they don’t have room in their pocket for a large media player and they don’t need a phone. Why wouldn’t they just buy an 8gb Nano and call it a day?

The iPod isn’t marketed to businesses and Apple has sold 100 million of them. The iPod is marketed to people, and the iPhone is, too. RIM sold 2 million BlackBerry devices in its most recent quarter; Apple sold 10.5 million iPods in the same period.

Any phone that costs $500 (with a 2 year contract, once again) might not be specifically marketed to businesses (though the push email tells me the iPhone will be) but that’s pretty much the customer base.

And there’s a huge, fundamental difference between these two markets. Businesses, typically, want to buy the cheapest things possible for their employees to use. When buying for themselves, people want to buy the nicest things they can afford.

Is it me, or is that the exact opposite of reality? Businesses often pay twice as much for the same things consumers (who sign contracts to get phones for free) do. People are generally cheap, businesses are not. I know a lot of people in corporate America, and they all joke about how even $50,000 servers are signed for without a question asked. And Blackberries are not cheap by any means, but they’ve viewed as the nicest device in their niche.

If you want to see how ridiculous that fanboy article really is, copy it into word and then go through it and replace each instance of $499 with “$499 with a two year contract”. Do the same with $599. You’ll see immediately why I’d gladly bet the under on 10 million iPhones sold by the end of 2008.

Don’t get me wrong, there are a lot of cool things about the phone. But it has way too many warts to be a hit. It doesn’t really have a niche, and it doesn’t create one. It sort of straddles a few, but it doesn’t allow you to replace the devices in that niche. And it costs far more than a Moto Q and a 4GB Nano. It’ll sell a couple million units to the many people who have wet dreams about Steve Jobs, and that will be about it.

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22 Responses to “Why The iPhone Will Be A Flop”

  1. Apple is targeting the “consumer smartphone” market. If you’ve looked at other devices targeting this market, you’d find a bunch of crap. The Sidekick is about the only one that’s actually doing it’s job. The Blackberry Pearl is nice but it’s still much more business oriented. The media player is a joke, web browsing is as bad as it is on any smartphone, and it’s still a Blackerry…which is and always has been business oriented. The Samsung Blackjack is a joke and is running Windows Mobile which is pretty much a death sentence. Microsoft has been playing catchup for years with it’s operating systems and will probably never catch up. Windows Mobile can’t hold a candle to the Blackberry OS and from the demo’s the iPhone’s operating system seems significantly better than RIM’s.

    The iPhone is clearly a superior product in terms of software. The main concern is the keyboard. I don’t think consumers are going to have a problem with this at all. Consumers don’t have any problem pounding out text messages using T9, so they don’t ask for much.

    The big issue, which you’ve obviously addressed, is price. Are consumers will to spend an extra $350 on a phone. I can’t answer that question and I don’t think you can either. Apple has shown that people are willing to spend more money on a superior product. Whether their recent successes in computers can be translated to cell phones remains to be seen.

    However, if the touch screen keyboard proves to be equal (or at least close) to a physical qwerty keyboard, you could see the iPhone make a decent dent in the business market as well. I don’t think Apple is expecting to take over the cellphone market but if they can get their expected market share, the phone will be a success.

    I will certainly be holding onto most of my Apple stock through the iPhone release. I may be rolling the dice a bit but Apple has been on fire the past few years and I personally doubt that the iPhone will flop.

  2. Check out HTC for consumer smartphones. They pretty much rule the roost right now, and I’m not sure they’ll be displaced by the iPhone. Their best models are very pricey too, but allow people to replace Treos. I’m probably going to pick up the 6800 myself.

    The sidekick is great too, as are Helio’s offerings, because of their price/feature set. They would not work at $500.

    Actually Apple has proven that people are willing to spend more on inferior products with better marketing. The iPod has never been as good, generally speaking, as some of the competition. iRiver used to kick their ass (even PCMag gave them better reviews back in the day, before they joined the cult) and now Creative does. In terms of features, file formats, battery life, etc, iPod has never been the best. Pretty much the only way in which they are superior to the competition is the clickwheel, which is, without a doubt, the best navigation system anyone has ever devised for a consumer electronic device.

    The touchscreen can’t be equal to a keypad, it’s impossible. The question is just how close it can get. Tactile feedback is enormously important. I am assuming Apple’s touchscreen will be significantly better than anything currently on the market. That sort of thing is their core competency when it comes to hardware.

    I personally might short Apple or mess with some options the day after it’s released. Their stock seems overpriced already.

  3. masterleep Says:

    Regarding the Yahoo email client, the Apple web site says:

    iPhone uses a rich HTML email client that fetches your email in the background from most POP3 or IMAP mail services and displays photos and graphics right along with the text.

    If it supports standard mail access protocols, what’s the problem?

  4. Project Says:

    I think that you are missing a few key points which are clouding your vision.

    1. The iPhone has the wow factor. From the design of the UI, the multitouch tricks, and the hardware. When pitched to consumers, this does make a difference. Is there a niche? Judging from the reaction I have seen from friends and family it would appear to be the case. These are not Mac fanboys, but generally like to have the coolest looking phones and all have iPods. I think you are seriously underestimating the sexy factor and its ability to shift units. People I know were pretty amazed at CoverFlow, zooming into pictures, visual voicemail etc. The RAZR was $499 and pretty much sucked in terms of features, but went on to become one of the quickest selling phones of all time.

    2. Every single phone on the market sucks as a media playing and managing experience. You mention HTC – consumers dont want a HTC. Its corporate buyers who pick those up. How do I manage my music with the HTC? How do I manage it with the N95? Not very well. Lots of people already have their music housed on iTunes and the ability to sync your playlists to the iPhone is a pretty big deal. I have to use some piece of shit software with the N95, or send them via bluetooth one track at a time.

    3. Regarding other players being better than the iPod, you show a complete lack of understanding of why the iPod has sold and why I believe you are wrong with the iPhone. Dude, people dont give a fuck about what file formats it plays. If it plays their music, they cool. iTunes will play their MP3s and rip their CDs. It will convert their WMAs automatically. Thats all that matters. The key differentiators for consumers are design and ease of use. iPod has always been the better device in this respect. The sleekness, the clickwheel, and iTunes were a trio that no other phone could match. That trio means more to the consumer than file formats and an FM radio.

    4. As for the price, it is deliberately pitched that high for a few reasons. Apple arent looking to take 70% of the market. They predicted 1%. Huge difference. Im of the believe that more than 1% of consumers are prepared to pay $500 on a contract. Whats more, a lot of people already see it as ‘my Nano costs me $249, so thats $249 for the phone with way more features”. Sure the price is high, but you are again failing to understand exactly what Apple are trying to do here. They are effectively creating a new niche in the market, not simply by price, but by the design of the phone and UI. They feel those factors plus the iTunes/iPod integration can differentiate it against the army of phones already out there. The iPhone isnt giftable at that price, but a 1% target says to me it doesnt need to be. In the next few years the price will fall and the product line will expand, reaching into some of the other market segments. But initially it is pitched as the must have, but exclusive device that people try to save up that extra couple of hundred dollars for. Apples marketing people arent stupid. In fact, they are probably the best at pitching the price as high as possible but still at a level tolerated by consumers.

    5. Tactile feedback doesnt matter. This isnt a business phone. Its a multimedia phone. Playing music and video and surfing the internet are far more important to the target market than typing emails. Plus, It appears to be much faster than T9 judging from the speed Jobs was typing. And T9 is what the target market use.

    Just my thoughts.

  5. niteboater Says:

    its surely not clear yet but you simply cannot count the ugly Blackberry with its horrid keys, unsensible navigation, and small screen as a worthy mobile device, please. I know dozens of corp users who will willingly state they only use the BB because its been foisted on them by the corp mothership. Only a few years ago it looked like RIM was history anyway, they are lucky to be still alive.

    There arent any phones that pass the grade on the market today, sad to say. The Treo’s suffer from horrid Palm OS, and a ridiculous assortment of hodge podge apps, made by a company that is barely in business anymore (and hopefully about to get squashed). MS “magneto” is yet another dull offering from a dull company, with zero appeal. Name your favorite MS app ! Like naming your favorite Federal program. Im not saying Apple’s iPhone will be the absolute cut, but its a start, and somebody has got to step up and deliver. I personally do not like having to lug around two seperate mobile devices – convergence will be most welcome. If anyone can do the mobile do it all device better than Apple, my hats off to them, I want to know.

  6. iBrett Says:

    ..So, by your premise, all other smartphones get free monthly service. Are you suggesting that you may only use your phone for a couple months, and then go back to land lines?? That’s just absurd. Of course you have to pay for monthly service!!! Forever. Who’s giving it away for free?

    Your argument is fallacious at best just plain “maroonic”.

    BTW – the thing I’ve been waiting for since long before the iPhone announcement is a phone that also has exceptional PDA functionality. And I stress “functionality”, not like the POS’ available today with Symbian, Linux and Windows Mobile. I don’t care about another AAC player, e-mail device or web browser. I need a dependable phone that integrates all my contacts and scheduling. It’s far cheaper to buy an iPhone that “just works”, then to replace my buggy Palm devise and replace my landfill-worthy Samsung phone.

    Oh, and guess what? I didn’t sign up for a two year commitment with my Samsung, awaiting the iPhone release in June – and they charged me an extra $150 for the privilege. (I had to purchase a phone 5 months before the iPhone release, because my Nokia crapped out – and I chose not to rely on land lines for communications).

  7. network23 Says:

    As always, I’m surprised how clueless americans are when it comes to mobile phones. You have absolutely no clue on how the rest of the world uses their phones. Sigh.

  8. Bkojot Says:

    Don’t be so sure.

    Hypothetical question: if the iPhone performs all its functions perfectly (being hypothetical) , do you believe it’ll still fail? I think there are many reasons the iPhone could fail, but I can’t fathom it failing on price alone.

    Let’s take a look at the current smartphone market in the US: just about all of them are piles of crap, and I’m looking directly at the Windows Mobile / PalmOS crowd when I say that (and away from the Blackberry / Symbian crowd which I’ll get to in a minute.) I owned an HTC Apache (PPC 6700 on Sprint) , supposedly the “creme de la creme.” Money spent was $600.00 upfront, $500.00 after a mail in rebate. Chalk up another $50.00 on a 1GB Memory Card. That’s a lot of money.

    Simply put, the phone was worthless- it didn’t perform a single function as well as my previous phone with Sprint, a lowly Samsung A920. I could write a five page description of the problems I had with the phone over the mere three months (and four replacements) I had it, ranging from the phone randomly locking up on my desk (a reset would reveal I had ten new voicemail messages, lovely) to the overal halfassedness of the device’s execution (MMS was never properly integrated, not enough device memory, far too slow)

    Then there was the interface. Now, mind you, the interface is a fairly important with any CE device, but it’s absolutely critical in a cell phone, where a few extra taps can irritate the end user and sully a product.

    The interface I’d say is a more logical argument in judging whether or not the iPhone is going to succeed or fail because it’s what it has going for it. On my HTC Apache, I envisioned checking my email, reading some RSS feeds, sending a picture and then casually slipping it back into my pocket, all while listening to my favorite Wilco track all on my walk home from work. Never happened, because to actually get to the fussy media player (Sprint and UTStarcom refused to support it if I loaded any 3rd party apps, so by my 3rd replacement I kept it to the bare minimum) and browse my songs, I’d be at my destination, and that’s if I had the chutzpah to do it while Explorer mobile slowed down the system trying to load a webpage.

    I know I’m not the only person who paid full price for that piece of crap, and if the iPhone works as advertised, it’s worth every penny, and I’d imagine a niche group of consumers (I estimate enough to prevent it from being a “flop” will probably feel the same way.) Sure, a Motorola Q and an iPod Nano are cheaper, but it’s a moot point if the iPhone is better .

    In the end, I ditched my HTC Apache for a Blackberry, which is what I’d say is the real competition for the iPhone. And when I say Blackberry, think “Yuppie-Chic” not “Large Corporation” (As in Blackberry 7100 series, not 8700 series.) Symbian Series 60 is another strong competitor to the iPhone with an established user base, but it may simply lack the marketing push (as well as “chic” form factors.) Both are multimedia deficient next to the iPhone.

    (Also, what iRiver “kicked the iPod’s ass?” The one that couldn’t play photos and music simultaneously or the one that had botched album sorting? (though I’m loving the new Clix) And if marketing is the sole reason behind Apple’s success, how come Microsoft’s Zunes are moving so slowly? Yes, a certain degree of success came from the marketing department, but a lot of it came from the fact Apple developed a very thorough complete package that worked relatively well together compared to the solutions their competitors were pitching.)

  9. In terms of features, file formats, battery life, etc, iPod has never been the best. Pretty much the only way in which they are superior to the competition is the clickwheel, which is, without a doubt, the best navigation system anyone has ever devised for a consumer electronic device.

    Perhaps you underestimate how important the user interface is. Consider that, unless you have some massive stash of ogg files and just *have* to be able to listen to FM radio on your trans-America road trip, no car charger to be had, those annoyances that you listed are almost never going to come up. On the other hand, the interface is the thing that the user has to deal with every time he wants to hear some music. The interface, for all practical purposes, *is* the iPod, so the fact that it is so amazingly great does more for the product than I think you give credit.

    That’s why I think the iPhone is going to be a success. If Apple can nail the usabilty issues that plague most cell phones, then I think they’re gonna be selling them as fast as they can make them. The people who really really need something that the iPhone doesn’t provide don’t much matter in the big scheme of things, because it’s such a fucking huge market. Plenty of pie for everyone.

  10. I suppose, in fairness, I’m one of those Apple fanboys. But Matt unintentionally hit upon the wild-card, that of the clickwheel. That is, feature checkboxes don’t have as much of an impact upon look and feel and ease of use. No wireless. No radio out of the box. Not even a built-in speaker. Possibly smaller storage and un-replaceable (or difficult to replace) batteries. But the iPod was in a very convenient and familiar size and shape, that of a deck of cards, and the use of the wheel was quick to grasp, borrowing from the knobs of radios. That and the whole single port (First firewire, then the proprietary connector) for fast transfer times and no external AC adapter.

    That’s what Apple’s betting on with the iPhone. Feature by feature, well, I would debate to a degree (For example, I leave Sidekick’s Javascript off, and wish I could disable CSS, because its partial implementation renders some sites illegible – a full web browser would be a significant advantage), but that’s besides the point. The selling point is the user interface, of flicking your finger about, pinching, turning the phone, and the animations to provide visual cues.

    The other thing to expect is that some of the misfeatures will have a publicity stunt aspect. The first iMac stayed wedged in the news due to the lack of floppy disk drive and lack of ports save USB, Ethernet, and Modem. Furthermore, the modem was originally going to be 33.6, and switched to 56K at the last moment, serving as another publicity point that never reached misfeature status. I expect something similar on the iPhone.

    Finally, even if you were to pessimistic on Apple’s performance, the fanbase is likely to be a contributing factor. In other words, if you were to assume that Apple delivers happiness and rainbows, then the iPhone will sell well based on that same level of quality. If you were to assume that Apple sucks, ipod is crap, etc, etc, then don’t forget that we apple fanboys have already proven we’ll buy Apple products at a premium.

    Either way, it’ll be interesting.

  11. Tom Ross Says:


    I agree with you: This iPhone for this price will not sell 10 million units in 2008. However, you can be sure there will be a new model (or two) next year and there will be lower prices – because that’s what Apple has done with the iPod year after year.

    In 2001, they introduced the iPod with one price point ($399). Last quarter, they had a lineup of 6 price points ranging from $79 to $349 (€79 to €399 in Europe), while the average price per iPod sold was $160.

    I think John Gruber wasn’t exactly saying that $399 without contract equals $499 with contract (or maybe he was), but the point is that average prices came down dramatically as Apple introduced more models.

    So just as an idea, think of an 16 GB iPhone selling for $399 (with contract) late next year. Wouldn’t that expand demand? Or think of an iPhone nano with half the screen size (or even without touch control) for $249.

    I’m not trying to predict what Apple engineers are going to come up with or not, I’m just looking at Apple’s track record. If Apple plan for the iPhone to succeed the iPod there will have to be a line of different models, and with this spread the number of phones sold will multiply.

    Also, reading through your arguments it sometimes sounds like “I can’t believe anybody would ever buy an iPod”, for example when you mention lack of DivX playback or say that 4 GB is too little space.

    This may be your personal preference, but the fact remains that Apple has sold 48 million iPods in the last 12 months, with the 4 GB nano being the most popular model. So these features are certainly not unpopular in an iPod and therefore won’t be an issue for iPhone popularity.

    You’ve also questioned that Apple has ever sold a lot of the high price models. It is kind of hard to measure, but there are some references.

    Before the iPod mini was introduced in early 2004, the big iPod used to be the only iPod you could get. In July-December 2003, Apple sold 1.069 million units of those.

    I think that’s the right ball park. If Apple can sell 1 million iPhones this year (assuming that the Euro launch is on track) I would consider that successful.

    For next year, let’s not get caught in debating those 10 million units for 1 % market share. This is a wild guess for Apple (they normally never do public sales predictions), intented just to put them on the map and saying “we’re not that naive to think that we can duplicate iPod market shares with the iPhone, but we’re still serious about this product”.

    As you’ve said, there is currently no market for a consumer smartphone. Apple is out to create that market with the iPhone. Let’s just give them the benefit of doubt for now and see how the launch goes and what the mid-price models are going to look like in 2008.

  12. What large corporation do you work for, Matt? I’m not naming names, but I work for a large U.S. company (over 20,000 employees) and things like phones and laptops are VERY tightly controlled.

    Yes, they’ll spend 1,000x as much on a server or something, but that’s something with a business need and plan. If you want a phone, proving that you need something more than the cheapest one is VERY difficult to pull off.

    I can’t speak for all of corporate America, but if my company is at all standard, the iPhone WILL sell far more in shopping malls than they will to large companies.

  13. jaroot Says:

    I think Project says it best… “my Nano costs me $249, so thats $249 for the phone with way more features”

    Also carrying one less device around is easily worth $250 to me.

  14. “Apple’s iPhone Rocks the Cell Phone Industry”


    “It’s not often that we say “it rocks” when analyzing a consumer device trend. But the findings of our latest ChangeWave cell phone survey invite extremes to describe the startling impact the Apple (AAPL) iPhone is having on the cellular industry.

    Our survey of 3,489 Alliance members – conducted April 4-10 – reveals exceptionally high levels of excitement surround the iPhone’s upcoming release. Nearly one-in-10 respondents (9%) say they are likely to buy the new iPhone once it becomes available in June.

    Another 7% say they are likely to buy the iPhone as a gift for someone else.

    These are big numbers, especially when you consider the worldwide market for cell phones is around 1 billion and Apple’s goal is to get to 1% of that market in year one – which would mean selling about 10 million phones.”

  15. Why The iPhone Will Be A Flop…

    iPods are popular as Christmas gifts, but what about iPhones?……

  16. @Matt

    “And have ten million of them at those prices sold in eighteen months?”

    Apple sold 71 million in the last 18 months. About 28% were the regular iPods (Video). That’s 20 million. More people own cell phones than portable music players.

    “It’s big and bulky”
    Is it?
    The iPhone is one centimetre taller than the iPod (30GB)
    The iPhone is smaller than most Blackberries …. and weighs about the same.
    The iPhone is slimmer than ALL Blackberries

    “Nope. It’s $499 and $599 with a two year contract”
    As others have already posted ……. do you expect to your calls and data to be free? I am from the UK, so maybe it’s different over there in the US, but over here we have to pay (one way or another) for using the phone.

    The iPhone IS expensive and I really have no idea whether it will succeed or not, but your arguments against it’s success appear to be particularly weak.

    I suspect that YOU just don’t like it…. or you just want it to fail.

  17. therealspike Says:

    -I agree with the subsciption thing, pretty annoying;

    - The price? Nevermind, people will buy;

    - The keyboard? Welcome to a totally new area of surface control… Devices such as Palm and Blackberry will follow…

    -If this device is bulky, what about those Palms and Blackberrys?

    -For the rest, you have to understand that Apple is not only creating a product but also the market that comes with it!

    iPhone will lead this new market, the consumers and developers will define it.

    Ho! And also you can make phone calls!

  18. in my country, they sale with a bad service :(

  19. You’ll see immediately why I’d gladly bet the under on 10 million iPhones sold by the end of 2008.

    I wish I'd taken out the bet. You lost. Sorry ;-)

  20. Very well thought out argument here – especially in light of what happened with Apple's stock recently.

  21. Prior to the iPhone, i had a bad experience with Windows Mobile and thought i would swear off smartphones. I'm not an Apple fanboy, but besides some basic functionality like copy paste, the iPhone's pretty decent.

  22. Interesting perspective. I really think that Apple is doomed to failure, just with the way that they handle business, the secrecy, and Mac OS greed.

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